It's an election year and pundits from across the spectrum are safely predicting a close election. Many elections are (or rather are made to seem) close. Pundits seem reluctant to see a proper recession start until after the election. The Reserve Bank is keen to push unemployment up, but as long as immigration remains muted, we're not so likely to see that happen. Labour shortages are good for New Zealand workers and families: as long as jobs are secure and higher wages can be negotiated to deal with inflation then the people will be happy. Negative GDP figures will be shrugged off. This may be Jacinda's saving grace. We can know with certainty that a National/Act government will open the floodgates and depress wages via immigration the moment they hold the reins of power. Voters won't be rushing to embrace that outcome.
They will do their best to keep Pandora's box closed till the election is over. Whoever gets voted in, has the dubious honour of dealing with what is coming.
A wonderful summary by Dieuwe de Boer.