"We expect the European ban on seaborne Russian crude and refined products (to come into force on February 5) to result in a drop of Russian production of at least 1 million barrels per day in 2023, with Russia having difficulties in finding alternative markets," UBS’ Giovanni Staunovo, told Insider.
While Russia has been rerouting crude volumes to Asia, traders are finding it increasingly challenging to secure the necessary insured vessels to carry sanctioned Russian crude. As of the first week of December, Moscow was sending nearly 90% of its crude to Asia.
Starting Marsden Point back up is going to start to look very attractive soon. But that will take at-least 2 - 3 years.
Globally, oil production is down everywhere so buckle up. Unless sensible decisions are made, we are going to see $3-5+ sooner then you would think.