I wrote and said publicly last year there was a non-negligible but real chance she would retire just before Christmas or early this year before the resumption of Parliament and in time for a new Labour leader to prepare for the election. I saw a retirement as possible, in part because of the intense pressures of the job over her five years in charge, and in part because Ardern has, bit by bit, ruled out many new policy areas for Labour.
She also knew she had become personally and viscerally unpopular with a section of the electorate, some of whom are swinging voters able to bring in a new Government. But it’s fair to say this is a surprise and a complete shock to most. It completely throws open the prospects for this year’s election, which is now set to be on October 14. I said it was possible, but never believed it was probable. It’s still a shock.
Short but honest, with a serve of nuance by Bernard Hickey.